You Applied For Your Dream Job. Is the Posting Real?
You wouldn’t know it from talking to some job seekers. Still, the latest statistics from the government indicate that there are approximately 9 million jobs available in the United States right now.
Their annoyance derives from the fact that they have been “ghosted” by potential employers who, for a variety of reasons, do not genuinely intend to fill all of the job opportunities that they have placed.
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According to workforce intelligence company Revelio Labs, documented instances of ghosting have risen in numerous industries since before the epidemic.
At the same time, the likelihood that an average job advertisement will result in a recruit has decreased to around half of what it was before the pandemic.
Such experiences have helped feed suspicion of the government’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which gives the official tally of vacancies in the United States.
This is especially true in light of the fact that the Federal Reserve has elevated this survey as a significant piece of evidence that the labor market has been too tight.
“Job advertisements and job openings are definitely not the most accurate measures. “When something is put under the microscope, its flaws become more apparent,” said Nick Bunker, who is the head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab.
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“You will never be able to capture the true breadth of the labor market if you’re relying on one statistic that can be fragile.”
During the pandemic, the monthly “JOLTS” data that the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes came under the attention for the same reason as Zoom calls and mask mandates did.
Taking advantage of a booming recruiting market and government assistance payments tied to COVID-19, millions of Americans decided to either move occupations or leave the labor field entirely.
The phenomenon was given the name “The Great Resignation,” and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell frequently alluded to JOLTS as an indication of labor-market heat as he and his colleagues launched the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades.
JOLTS stands for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), there were more than 12 million job opportunities across the economy at its greatest level last year, and there were two jobs available for every unemployed individual.
Because of its newly discovered significance as a major benchmark for policymaking, the dataset has received increasing attention from the scores of Fed watchers who are paid to evaluate and forecast the central bank’s every action. However, there have also been plenty of criticisms made regarding the dataset’s dependability.
Former Fed economist Julia Coronado referred to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, earlier this year as “garbage” because of its small sample size in comparison to other government reports and its low response rate.
She used the Spanish word “basura” to describe the survey. Recently, she and a few other economists working in the private sector convened a teleconference with specialists from the BLS to discuss their concerns.
Indeed and other leading job sites, such as Microsoft-owned LinkedIn and ZipRecruiter, maintain that they utilize both technology and human teams to go through their millions of job posts to ensure that they represent “legitimate intent to hire for a bona fide job opportunity,” as the user agreement for LinkedIn states.
Indeed, representative Jyotsna Grover noted that inactive job postings, sometimes known as “ghost” job postings, are not a common problem.
According to what she stated, the website deletes “tens of millions” of postings every month that violate its policies and standards.
According to a spokesperson of ZipRecruiter, violators run the risk of being temporarily suspended or permanently removed from the platform.
Maintaining vigilance
Paul Calhoun, the BLS supervisory economist who oversaw JOLTS and was involved in its conception more than 20 years ago, stated that the agency does not trawl online job ads but rather conducts surveys with 21,000 businesses in order to generate its data.
Calhoun was also engaged in the creation of JOLTS. Even though it is unable to verify that every job vacancy results in an employment offer, it does monitor the general employment levels at the companies.
“If there’s deviation in those numbers, or if the hires don’t jibe with the job openings, we check to see if everything is still valid,” according to Calhoun. “And we will kick out the outliers.”
Despite this, professionals in the field of recruiting and those looking for work both claim that some job listings do not actually have employment behind them.
According to Jamie McLaughlin, founder, and chief executive officer of the recruiting service Monday Talent, sometimes a company would publish a role in advance of an opening becoming available in order to establish a pool of applications for when the opening does become available.
“Even if you don’t have jobs, you can start pipelining and filling for roles when things pick up,” according to McLaughlin. “It all adds up to why these jobs stay online, but doesn’t make it any less frustrating for the candidate.”
Early on in this year, Jordan Hughes began the process of applying for jobs; he estimates that he sent at least 50 applications over six months. Only around a dozen of them responded to his inquiry.
One of these was a gas station close to Rochester, New York, where they needed someone to work the overnight shift. He was made an offer over the phone by the district manager, but he did not hear back from them again.
After about a week or two, the job advertising was no longer visible on Craigslist; nevertheless, it reappeared on the website after roughly another month had passed.
“It’s totally great with me if somebody doesn’t want to hire me. “However, you don’t typically tell people those things, and then disappear completely from the face of the earth,” said Hughes, who is 29 years old and has worked in a variety of retail professions for the past 10 years. “It was so much more frustrating than it needed to be.”
Ghosting can indeed work in both directions. Recruiters have anecdotes to tell about candidates who accepted job offers but ultimately did not show up for work.
However, incidents like this will become less common as the labor market continues to weaken and the equilibrium of power turns back toward employers.
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According to the data provided by the BLS, there were over 8.8 million open positions in the United States as of July. This figure represented a decline of almost 27% from the all-time high in March 2022. (The data for August are supposed to be released on October 3, but considering that a government shutdown is imminent, this doesn’t seem very certain.)
In recent months, large firms in the United States have resorted to firing employees, delayed the rate at which they are employing new workers, and pushed back the start dates of those they are bringing on board.
An analysis conducted by The Josh Bersin Company, a workplace consultant, found that the average amount of time needed to acquire new employees was greater than six weeks during the first three months of 2023. This represented a new all-time high.
Hughes, on the other hand, was successful in the end in securing employment and began working a few nighttime jobs at a different gas station. Even now, he has “a million” applications out for consideration at other companies.
“I wanted a few more shifts than this, but right now I’m just happy to have landed anything,” stated the employee.
